Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
